It is only mid-May, but that does not mean we can’t talk a little NFL and it certainly does not mean we can’t talk a little wagering. Now you do not have to use this list strictly as an attempt at monetary gain. You can use it for several different things such as wagering among friends for the next round at the bar, a nice steak dinner or even just to keep track of yourself as the season goes along. Hey – you can even use them to troll Yours Truly if by chance these do not turn out the way I predict. Just make no mistake, you will benefit in some way from this should you chose to do so.
The following list will consist of two over and two under bets I feel strongly about this season. I also included a bonus two that I have no real feeling about and think you should avoid, considering the current odds. Here we go:
OVER LOCKS OF THE YEAR:
Kansas City O/U 9.5 Wins
This is a team who finished second in defensive DVOA and third in offensive DVOA last season. No one really feels comfortable when they back Andy Reid and no one likes to back Alex Smith in general, but this is a really talented and deep roster. With home games against the Saints, Jets, Jaguars, and Titans all on the schedule for the Chiefs this season, they should not have many speed bumps along the way to double digit wins. Oh and did I mention Mark Sanchez is the quarterback of their division rival Broncos now?
Tampa Bay O/U 7.5 Wins
This is a team that won six games last season and their kicker missed three field goals in one of their 10 losses. Tampa’s kicker situation should be better after using a second round pick on one this offseason. They also upgraded their below average defensive unit through free agency and the draft. Jameis Winston appears to be a stud quarterback in the making, don’t over think this one. Take the over.
UNDER LOCKS OF THE YEAR:
New York Jets O/U 8 Wins
I am not sure what Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to do about playing football this season, but what I do know is that last year was an outlier performance for his career. I am pretty confident that the 2015 season will go down as a career year for Fitzy. If Fitzpatrick isn’t the quarterback of the Jets this year, Geno Smith and/or Christian Hackenberg will be under center versus a brutal schedule. The Jets play home against the Bengals and Seahawks, while having to go on the road to play the Chiefs, Steelers, and Cardinals. They also have to travel to Buffalo on a short week to face the rival Bills. All of these games occur in the first six weeks of these season, and I do not see a lot of wins in those first few games.
Atlanta Falcons O/U 7.5 Wins
The Falcons won eight games last season and the numbers show they were fortunate to have won that many. Atlanta finished 22nd in defensive DVOA and 28th in offensive DVOA last season. By comparison, San Francisco was 21st in offense and 27th in defense and won only five games. With road games against Oakland, Denver, and Seattle on top of home games against Green Bay, Arizona and Kansas City, their schedule does not look promising before you add in their two divisional games against defending NFC Champion Carolina. As I stated earlier, Tampa Bay should be much improved as well.
New England Patriots O/U 10.5 Wins
Generally when a team is without their Hall of Fame quarterback for four games during a season, I would have them as a lock for the under. Bookmakers would also have the line adjusted down more that what you see here with New England maybe around seven or eight wins. But this is the New England Patriots, this is Bill Belichick, this is Tom Brady. You never bet against them under any circumstance. Do not get cute here.
Dallas Cowboys O/U 9.5 Wins
Last year showed that despite his flaws and propensity for crucial turnovers in key games, Tony Romo is still really good. Last year also showed that the team and coaching staff around him is not so good. The defense was pretty bad and even with a great offensive line the offense left a lot to be desired. If Romo stays healthy in what should be a pretty mediocre division, they should cruise to 10 wins. If Romo gets hurt like he has a tendency to do, you could be looking at another four win season for Dallas. Unless you can guarantee that Romo’s collarbone stays intact all season, stay away from this line.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag
Photo Credit: Associated Press/Charles Krupa