NFL Week 4 Picks

Thursday, Sept. 29

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

NB: Cincinnati Bengals. Borderline must win game for the Bengals at home. The Dolphins are 3-11 ATS against the AFC since 2015. This feels like a blowout. Word to the wise though, Randy and I were 1-5 last week in games we agreed on, so you might be savvy to go with the Dolphins.

RH: Cincinnati Bengals. This is a get right game here for the Bengals. Miami could’ve lost their game against Cleveland several different times and probably should have. Despite losing as a favorite last week, the Bengals have still covered 8 of the last 13 games they’ve been favored in.

Sunday, Oct. 2

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

NB: Indianapolis Colts. The Jags opened as two point favorites for the London game, but the line has moved big time in the Colts’ favor. That should be a big red flag to take the Colts. Andrew Luck is 5-1 straight up versus the Jaguars in his career and the Colts are 20-4 straight up versus the AFC South since Luck was drafted. On the other hand,  the Colts’ porous pass defense scares me against a team that has the ability to throw it deep, but not enough to scare me away from picking them. Gus Bradley might get left in London if the Jags lose again.

RH: Indianapolis Colts. London games are always kinda weird, but I don’t see how the Jags hang with the Colts right now. They’re the same old Jags and Andrew Luck has been putting the team on his back so far this year. Jacksonville is also 1-2 ATS in games played across the pond.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

NB: Washington Redskins. This line seems way too high for a mediocre Redskins team. Buy you know what, why not? Seems like a good time for Washington to get back to .500, get their fans riled up again with a blowout win, and set them up for more heartbreak this season.

RH: Cleveland Browns. The Browns covered a big a number on the road last week and I think they do it again in this one. Cleveland has been surprisingly feisty in their last two games and if Eli doesn’t pull an Eli last week Washington would be 0-3. The extra half point has me on the side of the underdog.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5)

NB: Buffalo Bills. No one circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills! Look, the Bills aren’t as good as they looked last week, but the Patriots are due for a down game after having everything go right for them the first three weeks.

RH: New England Patriots. The line could change depending on the QB situation, but take the Pats no matter what. New England is 13-6-2 ATS at home since the start of the 2014 season and oh by the way are already 2-0 at home with two different starting quarterbacks.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New York Jets

NB: New York Jets. This is home dog weekend. This is the first of five(!) games where the away team is laying a field goal. I really like the Jets here playing a West Coast team with a 1pm start time. Throw in the fact that Russell Wilson is banged up and Seattle has been up and down all year, and you have yourself an easy pick.

RH: New York Jets. My partner nailed it with this one. Take the home dog and even though last week is the perfect example of why you can never safely bet on Ryan Fitzpatrick this is a spot even he cannot screw up. Or can he?

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

NB: Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan is great early in the season, and also great as a home underdog in his career (10-5 ATS). Even against the NFC champs, take the home dog again here.  Falcons get a big win before their inevitable midseason struggles begin in the next few weeks.

RH: Carolina Panthers. I have to admit I’m a little worried about Carolina after this past weekend. Even though there isn’t one specific thing I can point to that is different between this year and last year a Super Bowl hangover could be in play here. I’ll roll with them one more week before I hit the panic button.

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears

NB: Chicago Bears. Fool me once? Shame on you. Fool me twice? Shame on me. Fool me three times? Maybe a sign I should never pick Chicago again. Fool me a fourth time? I may have to change my last name. C’mon Bears! You owe me a win.

RH: Detroit Lions. I think I’ve identified the Bears as the team everyone needs to bet against in 2016 as they are already 0-3 ATS. Not only are they a bad football team, the Lions are 2-0 ATS on the road so far in 2016.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5)

NB: Houston Texans. The Texans laid an egg in New England, but they aren’t as bad as they looked last Thursday. Houston is back at home where they are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. With a 10 day break and the salty taste of a loss in their mouth, I think they rebound big on the back of DeAndre Hopkins who always feasts on Tennessee.

RH: Houston Texans. Even though it appears J.J. Watt is done for the season, Houston is still in a really good spot here. They get 10 days to prepare for the Titans who are the worst team in the league on the road ATS since the start of 2014 with a record of 5-12. The Texans rest of season chances took a hit with the Watt news, but they will be fine without him for at least one week.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

NB: Baltimore Ravens. This may be irrational, but Baltimore just feels like that team that keeps pulling wins out of their hat. Give me the home team playing the West Coast team who has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball in the last few games. The Raiders’ defense should also help the Ravens’ offense break their slump.

RH: Oakland Raiders. Sorry Nick, but I am not a believer in this Ravens team yet. They were down 20-0 to Cleveland, tried everything in their power to lose to the Jags last week only for the Jags to show them how it’s really done. Buffalo is the best team they’ve beat and they allowed the human turnover machine that is Ryan Fitzpatrick to pick them apart in their house. The Raiders history of struggling with 1 PM eastern start times has me worried, but I’ll take the points and the better team in my opinion.  

Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NB: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I hate to bet against Von Miller and that defense, but the Trevor Siemian Show is bound to have some bumps in the road. This feels like a let down game for Denver and I’ll take another home dog.

RH: Denver Broncos. I’m still on the Bucs bandwagon even after last week’s debacle, but my seat is currently for sale (I accept Venmo or PayPal). This has the feel of a let down game for Denver, but I cannot bet on the Bucs until they show me more.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers

NB: Dallas Cowboys. Chip Kelly, while head coach of the Eagles, lost all three home games he coached against Dallas by double digits. Those Eagles’ teams were much more talented than this 49ers’ roster. The Dak Attack continues with or without Dez this Sunday.

RH: San Francisco 49ers. Hey now! This is a homedog I can get on board with. Make no mistake the Niners are a bad football team and this could blow up in my face. However Chip Kelly is very familiar with this Dallas defense (or lack thereof) averaging almost 22 points per game against them as the Eagles head coach and should be able to get the running game going with Carlos Hyde.

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

NB: San Diego Chargers. This game figures to be a big shootout between two offensive minded teams. I can’t put any faith into the Saints until their defense shows me something. I know the San Diego crowd is pretty ho-hum overall, but traveling a long distance on a short week will doom New Orleans.

RH: New Orleans Saints. Despite the well documented struggles about the Saints offense on the road, they are actually a pretty solid road team ATS as they are 5-4 dating back to the start of last season and already have a road cover under their belt this season. On the flip side, San Diego is just 3-6 ATS at home in that same time frame even with a home cover already this season.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8)

NB: Arizona Cardinals. This is a real put up or shut up game for the Cardinals. Palmer needs to bounce back and I expect him to be pretty good. The Cardinals defense should take advantage of Case Keenum and it’s always smart to bet on Jeff Fisher to get back to .500.

RH: Arizona Cardinals. I am chalking up both teams performances last week as anomalies. Arizona already covered once this season at home after a loss and this line should be double digits. Bet on Good Carson showing up this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

NB: Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS following a loss since 2014. I think they will respond to their embarrassing performance last week and Le’veon Bell should run wild in his first game back from suspension. I don’t think the Chiefs are especially good, especially in a tough road night game.

RH: Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers were embarrassed in Week 3 against Philadelphia and I fully expect them to bounce back on Sunday night. I liked the Chiefs preseason, but even after their win against the Jets in week 3 I’m still left wanting more from them. Ryan Fitzpatrick did as much to lose that game for New York as KC did to win it.

Monday, Oct. 3

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

NB: New York Giants. The Vikings continue to cover the spread almost every week, but I think Vegas will finally catch on this week in a game they are begging you to take Minnesota. When Eli is doubted the most, that is when he plays his best game. Watch out for the G Men on Monday.

RH: Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have covered 17 of their last 20 games, and are already 3-0 ATS this season. The Giants showed last week that you can’t get rid of one person (Tom Coughlin), keep basically everything else the same and expect different results. Who knew right? That was one of the most classic Giants losses in the Eli era and this line actually has value on the Vikings side to boot. This line implies that the Vikings are only 1.5 points better than the Giants? Give me a break. Minnesota rolls in this one.

Season Record:

NB: 21-27 (7-9 last week)

RH: 20-28 (5-11 last week)

-Nick Bair & Randy Haines

Odds according to Westgate Las Vegas

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