NFL Week 6 Picks

Thursday, Oct. 13

Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers

NB: San Diego Chargers. The Chargers need this win and can’t possibly find a new way to lose. Even though the Broncos are coming off a loss and will be ready to rebound, but the San Diego offense will matchup well against the Denver pass rush.

RH: Denver Broncos. I don’t have a great feel for this one (as is the case for most of these Thursday games), but I’ll go with Denver here. The Chargers can only lose so many games in gut wrenching fashion before they completely fold as a team. Is this Mike McCoy’s last game?

Sunday, Oct. 16

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

NB: Buffalo Bills. I hate giving this many points to the Bills, but the Niners are bad and Kaep hasn’t played well at QB in a few years. Tyrod Taylor has also played pretty pretty poorly this year, but Shady McCoy is back to his old self and the Bills D has been very good outside of the Jets game. The Bills are also 2-0 straight up and ATS against the NFC West this year. That should continue.

RH: Buffalo Bills. This game has under the radar shootout potential. Neither team is special on the defensive side of the ball and I finally get my wish of seeing Colin Kaepernick in Chip Kelly’s offense. Now it’s not in Eagle green like I had hoped for, but I’m still excited for this either way.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Washington Redskins

NB: Washington Redskins. I have no idea why the Redskins are home underdogs in a division matchup. Both are teams are pretty close talent wise, and I’ll take those 2 points and hope for the best in a toss up.

RH: Philadelphia Eagles. I hate that Vegas made the Eagles a short road favorite in a division game this early in the season, but I think the Eagles are the better team in all phases especially if Jordan Reed cannot play on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7)

NB: Cleveland Browns. I am just about ready to give up on the Browns no matter the spread, but the Titans keep almost every game close. I expect that to continue and can’t imagine they win by double digits, even against the Land.

RH: Tennessee Titans. Week 6 is brutal so far. The Titans are playing really well lately, but a 7 point favorite? On the other hand who is playing quarterback for Cleveland? This is a stay away.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-8.5)

NB: New England Patriots. The Bengals are bad and are not the same team that they were last season. The Patriots are in full Eff You mode and will continue to dominate in Brady’s first home game off suspension.

RH: Cincinnati Bengals. Here’s another game I have no idea what to do with. The Bengals are 4-1 as road dogs since the start of last season, but the Brady revenge tour is already rolling. I’m reluctantly taking the points.  

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3)

NB: Baltimore Ravens. The Super Bowl XXXV rematch. The spread was also three points that day (albeit in the Ravens favor), but I’m hoping for a similar result (Baltimore won 34-7). The Ravens are better than the Giants are overall, and I’ll take those extra three points .

RH: Baltimore Ravens. Week 6 what is your purpose?!?! Neither team has been very impressive over the last few weeks and I think overall they are about as close as you can get. I’ll take the points.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at New Orleans Saints

NB: Carolina Panthers. There is zero chance the Panthers go 1-5. Cam should be back this week, and I think Carolina beats a not very good Saints team. This should be high scoring, but I think Cam wills them to victory.

RH: New Orleans Saints. It would appear that Cam and Jonathan Stewart will return in this one, but I’m still not ready to jump back on Carolina. The Saints are also 7-1 ATS since 2009 coming off their bye week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins

NB: Miami Dolphins. Remember the last time everyone jumped on the Steelers bandwagon in a road game? Yeah, they got throttled by the Eagles that week. Now, I don’t expect the exact same result here, but Pittsburgh isn’t quite the same on the road and the Dolphins have to have a good game at some point right?

RH: Pittsburgh Steelers. I think Miami is the worst team in the NFL right now and Pittsburgh has looked unstoppable the last two games with Le’veon Bell back. Steelers roll in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

NB: Chicago Bears. Just a gut call here. Don’t let the win over the Colts in London fool you, the Jags are still pretty bad. I think Chicago finally feeds Alshon the ball this week and gets the win at home. Jacksonville is also 0-5 ATS against the NFC since the start of last season.

RH: Jacksonville Jaguars. Anddd we’re back with more Week 6 ridiculousness. I think the Jags are less crappy of the two teams and the Bears are just 6-12 ATS at home since the start of 2014.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

NB: Detroit Lions. None of my research pointed strongly to either of these teams. I think they are pretty even, but I’ll take the team with a real NFL QB over the one with Case Keenum. Probably a stay away though.

RH: Los Angeles Rams. I’m picking the Rams because it makes absolutely no sense to take them here. That is just how the Jeff Fisher Rams roll, they lose at home to the Bills by double digits and then will go into Detroit and probably shut them out or something stupid like that. The Lions also aren’t exactly the model of consistency as Detroit is just 7-11 ATS after a win since the start of 2014.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK)

NB: Kansas City Chiefs. The Panthers and the Chiefs are the two games I feel most confident about this week. We know Andy Reid is great off a bye and I think the Raiders are still overrated. The oddsmakers must agree, as they made aren’t making the 4-1 Raiders favorites at home.

RH: Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders have officially arrived, however Andy Reid is 15-2 as a head coach coming off a bye week. I think the Chiefs win this one straight up.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

NB: Seattle Seahawks. Vegas is giving no love to the red hot Falcons after a road win in Denver. Why? Because they know Seattle is ready to roll following their bye week. The Seahawks are 35-22 ATS against in conference games with Russell Wilson at QB and that continues Sunday.

RH: Seattle Seahawks. I don’t see the Falcons keeping this one close after playing a physical Broncos team last week. I think the last two wins against Carolina and Denver are about the best Atlanta can be expected to play and there should be some regression on the horizon with Seattle coming off a bye.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

NB: Dallas Cowboys. The Dak Attack is for real and the Cowboys have a great formula for success: running the ball and winning the time of possession battle. This is especially important against the Green Bay offense. I think Dallas keeps Rodgers off the field and Dallas gets revenge after the “Dez Caught It” game two playoffs ago.

RH: Dallas Cowboys. I’ve been betting against this team most of the season and it hasn’t worked out very well for me. I still don’t think this defense is good at all and I’m still interested to see how Dak Prescott handles himself if Dallas has double digit deficit to overcome (sorry trailing to the Niners does not apply here). Having said that, the Packers have not really been that impressive this season on offense and have already allowed late game back door covers at home to Detroit and the Giants this season.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3)

NB: Houston Texans. The AFC South is hot garbage this year. The Texans showed last week that they aren’t a real contender when they played a very good Vikings team. Having said that, the Colts are not a very good team and the Texans’ offense should rebound from last week. I think Brock does a little better against a porous Colts’ D who just let (ex-Texan) Brian Hoyer throw all over them.

RH:Houston Texans. Despite the major advantage the Colts will have at quarterback this week, you could argue Houston has the advantage at literally every other position on the field. I usually like to take the better QB if they are getting points, but the Colts might have the worst roster in the league if you take Andrew Luck away.

Monday, Oct. 17

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

NB: Arizona Cardinals. It’s time to write the Jets off. With Decker out for the year and Fitzpatrick regressing to his career mean, they are just not explosive enough to compete this season. The Cardinals are in the midst of turning their season around and should continue their upward trend with Carson Palmer back from his concussion.

RH: Arizona Cardinals. The Jets are 30th in overall team DVOA so far in 2016. Their quarterback is a turnover machine and their secondary doesn’t look as if they could cover the H&H writing staff let alone Larry Fitzgerald.  The Cardinals roll in this one.

Season Record:

NB: 37-40 (8-6 last week)

RH: 31-46 (4-10 last week)

-Nick Bair & Randy Haines

Odds according to Westgate Las Vegas

Photo Credit: Walter Iooss Jr./SI

 

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