NFL Week 7 Picks

Thursday, Oct. 20

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

NB: Green Bay Packers. Every time you start to doubt the Pack, they blow an inferior opponent out. After they lost the Vikings in Week 2, they came back and smoked to the Lions (until a late backdoor cover, but we won’t lament that too much). I think Rodgers has a huge game and gets Green Bay back on track.

RH: Green Bay Packers. I’m genuinely worried about Green Bay going forward, but not in this one. After seeming to get a little boost from Brian Hoyer playing over Jay Cutler, the Bears have come back down to the doormat we all knew they would be.

Sunday, Oct. 23

New York Giants (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

NB: New York Giants. This seems like a toss up to me, but I’ll take the team with a five hour time difference over the team with an eight hour time difference. The Giants also got some of their juju back last week after a big win.

RH: Los Angeles Rams. America set your alarms for this game of two very dysfunctional and very closely matched teams. The Giants are just 3-4-1 ATS after a win since the start of last season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

NB: Minnesota Vikings. I am just going to keep riding the Vikings until they prove me wrong. Sammy Sleeves homecoming is the only thing that scares me.

RH: Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles had one of the best offensive lines in the league through the first five weeks. Lane Johnson’s suspension quickly turned that unit into a mess last week against Washington. If Doug Pederson and his staff do not get things solved quickly, this game could get ugly as they will actually be facing a real defense this week.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

NB: Kansas City Chiefs. While this line seems pretty high for a so-so Chiefs team following a win, I just do not trust the Saints outside of the SuperDome. The Saints defense should get gashed all game, so they will need the offense to bail them out again to keep it close.

RH: Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints have surprisingly covered in their two outdoor games this season, but those were matchups against the below average Chargers and the dysfunctional Giants. The Chiefs looked poised to turn their season around after another slow start to the season.

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1.5)

NB: Washington Redskins. This is a stay away game with two teams who have been really bad at times, and also decent at other times. Every Lions’ game seems to be really close, so I’ll take the 1.5 points in a relative toss-up.

RH: Detroit Lions. Washington is not good enough to win five games in a row. That’s it, that is my logic. They could have easily lost several of those games and their mediocrity catches up to them here.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-10)

NB: Cleveland Browns. Are either of these teams any good? Not really. Because of that it’s hard for me to believe Cincy can win by double digits, even against the Browns. If you shut down AJ Green, it is pretty easy to slow down the Bengals offense.

RH: Cleveland Browns. I hate having to root for a Browns backdoor cover, but that’s the spot we are in here. The Bengals have done nothing so far this season to deserve being double digit favorites over anyone including Cleveland.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins

NB: Miami Dolphins. While you can’t overreact to the Dolphins destroying Pittsburgh last week, I do think Miami will improve as the season goes along. Adam Gase is a good coach and as the team adapts to his style, they will begin to show some signs of life. Pair that with the home underdog angle, and you have a good pick for the week.

RH: Miami Dolphins. This is a stay away. I believe in the Bills, but not sure I believe in them this much. Plus Shady McCoy left practice with a hamstring injury on Wednesday and his status for Sunday is now in question.

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

NB: Oakland Raiders. I am surprised the Jags are favored. I know Oakland lost last week and Jacksonville won, but looking at their rosters, it shouldn’t be that close. I think the Raiders bounce back and get a nice win here. And I’ll take the bonus point.

RH: Oakland Raiders. I do not understand this line at all. The Raiders are definitely the better team and have performed much better on the road this season. This should be on all parlay tickets this weekend.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

NB: Tennessee Titans. Just stay away from any AFC South vs AFC South matchup. It is tough to predict this terrible division. Despite that, I think the Titans have a decent all around team, while the Colts are Andrew Luck and a bunch of spare parts. I’ll take Tennessee.

RH: Tennessee Titans. It will be interesting to see how this young Titans team plays as home favorite in what is weirdly a potential division deciding game. I hate to underestimate Andrew Luck, but the Colts are just so bad everywhere else around him.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (PK)

NB: Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens should get back to their run game (you saw what David Johnson just did to the Jets) for their second straight game at MetLife Stadium. That should be worth at least a point right?  Also, Geno Smith.

RH: Baltimore Ravens. The bad news is we can’t bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. The good news is we get to bet against Geno Smith! I do think the Jets made the right move seeing what they have in their other QB’s, but this is a true last chance for Geno here. I expect to see either Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg pretty soon.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

NB: San Diego Chargers. The Chargers might have more heartbreaking losses than the rest of the league combined this year, but they don’t get blown out. I am still not a full believer in Atlanta and think this game will come down to the wire.

RH: Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons almost winning in Seattle a week after winning in Denver showed that they are in fact for real. The Chargers are coming in with a few extra days rest, but I don’t think it will matter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers

NB: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It doesn’t matter who the QB is in San Fran, this team is bad. I know Tampa is traveling cross country, and I know they haven’t been playing too well either, but c’mon Jameis, you can’t lose this one.

RH: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A pretty lackluster game to being with just got worse as it looks as if both team’s star running backs Doug Martin and Carlos Hyde will be out this weekend. I’ll take the Bucs here as they have one last chance to save their season.

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

NB: New England Patriots. This feels like a trap. Tom Brady vs Landry Jones, yet I am getting single digits. I am sure Pittsburgh will backdoor cover this one somehow, but you have to go with the Pats here.

RH: New England Patriots. I’m all over the Pats here. No Big Ben means the Steelers really don’t have a chance most weeks let alone against the Tom Brady revenge tour.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

NB: Seattle Seahawks. Carson Palmer is not good anymore. He has lost his mojo and the Legion of Boom will take advantage of that. Also, the Seahawks have gotten their act together and look like a really balanced team. And I get 1.5 points? Sign me up!

RH: Arizona Cardinals. I’m worried about the health of Russell Wilson, he did not look like himself at all last week. I do think he will be fine within the next month, but having limited mobility against a Cards defense that looks like they have their groove from last season back is a bad situation to be in.

Monday, Oct. 24

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

NB: Denver Broncos. Whenever you can, bet against the AFC South, especially on the road against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Von Miller is going to feast on Brock Lobster Monday.

RH: Denver Broncos. The Texans have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball and I see it all unraveling in Denver this week. Osweiler’s rocky mountain reunion will be as bad as advertised.

Season Record:

NB: 46-45-1 (9-5-1 last week)

RH: 38-53-1 (7-7-1 last week)

-Nick Bair & Randy Haines

Odds according to Westgate Las Vegas

Photo Credit: FOX Sports

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s