Week 11 NFL Picks

Thursday, Nov. 17

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

NB: Carolina Panthers. The Saints are bad on the road and are coming off a really tough loss that probably killed their playoff hopes. They also have to travel on a short week. I think the Panthers are in a good spot here.

RH: New Orleans Saints. The Saints are a surprising 6-3 ATS this season and have already won 3 games outdoors on the road this season. I’ll take them to keep what should be a high scoring affair pretty close.

Sunday, Nov. 20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

NB: Tennessee Titans. Mariota Mania! The Titans look like a real team and I have no faith in anyone besides Andrew Luck on the Indy roster. This should be a really good game though.

RH: Indianapolis Colts. I’m not ready to completely hop on the Titans bandwagon just yet. The Colts coming are off a bye and playing what is essentially a playoff game for them with current state of the division.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

NB: Jacksonville Jaguars. It is never fun to pick the Jags, especially this year, but I am still not buying into the Lions. Also, the Jags love to backdoor cover.

RH: Jacksonville Jaguars. The Lions have played in a bunch of wild games already this season and I could see this being a game where they jump out big only for the terrible Blake Bortles garbage timing his way into another backdoor cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

NB: Kansas City Chiefs. KC is rolling right now and needs to keep winning to stay in the division race. The Bucs looked good last week, but I think they will go back to their normal form against the ball hawking Chiefs’ D.

RH: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I love the Chiefs this year but this is too many points. Kansas City is just not built to blow out anyone whose quarterback isn’t Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5)

NB: Chicago Bears. With the Bears coming off a terrible performance and the G Men coming off a big win, I tend to like to go the opposite. I think the Bears will play better this week and the G Men just haven’t blown anyone out all year.

RH: New York Giants. The Giants are somehow 6-3 despite having a negative point and turnover differential. Regression is coming for Big Blue, but not against the Bears who will be without Alshon Jeffery, Kyle Long and possibly Jordan Howard.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (PK)

NB: Arizona Cardinals. Stay away. Stay away. Stay away. There teams are simply off right now. The Vikings are seemingly in a free fall, but they are playing at home and have to play well again soon, right? The Cardinals barely squeaked by the lowly Niners last week and Carson Palmer looks toast. I have no faith in either team this week.

RH: Arizona Cardinals. I have literally no idea what to do with this game. I think the Cards pass rush ends up being the difference against the Vikings terrible offensive line.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

NB: Buffalo Bills. I think the Bengals have really taken a step back this year. They have been super consistent the past few seasons, but they lost a few too many guys this offseason and haven’t quite had it this year.

RH: Buffalo Bills. The Bills have actually been somewhat unlucky this year as they have a positive point and turnover differential, but are just 4-5. Coming off a bye and “The healthiest they’ve been all season” according to Rex Ryan (uhh guessing he forgot about that Sammy Watkins guy) is a good spot for Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

NB: Baltimore Ravens. I am definitely going to jinx my favorite team, but I really like how the Ravens matchup with Dallas. Baltimore has a great run defense and will not like Zeke beat them. I think Dak will have a tough day trying to win this game on his arm, and this could be a straight up upset for Baltimore.

RH: Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys have won eight straight games and covered in all of those eight wins. The Ravens have the defense that could slow this offense down, but they don’t have the offense to take advantage of what it is a pretty poor Dallas defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) at Cleveland Browns

NB: Cleveland Browns. Last week, I said something that the Browns should never be favored by less than double digits. However, the Steelers have played pretty poorly on the road this year. They have lost by 31, 15, and 7 in their last three road games, and that was against Philly, Miami, and Baltimore. Not exactly juggernauts. Hold your nose and take the Land.

RH: Cleveland Browns. You always take home dogs getting this many points. It won’t be pretty, but you have to take Cleveland here.

Miami Dolphins (1.5) at Los Angeles Rams

NB: Los Angeles Rams. With Jared Goff starting and the Dolphins coming in hot, I imagine the public is going all in on Miami (the line shifted from the Rams being favored to the Dolphins). The Rams can’t possibly be any worse with Goff, take the home dog.

RH: Los Angeles Rams. I’m still not buying into the Dolphins and think starting Jared Goff will give this team a much needed spark even if he’s not ready for prime time just yet.

New England Patriots (-13) at San Francisco 49ers

NB: San Francisco 49ers. Another hold your nose game. Kaep has been decent and this is a ton of points for an away team, even the Pats.

RH: New England Patriots. Remember what I said about Cleveland and always taking a big home underdog? Yeah that rule doesn’t apply to the Patriots coming off a loss.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

NB: Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is starting to roll, right on queue in the second half of the season. Russell Wilson looks much healthier and we know this team plays well at home.

RH: Philadelphia Eagles. All four of the Eagles losses this season have been by one possession and they have a dominant defensive line that should be able to exploit a pretty weak Seattle offensive line. This should a pretty well played, low scoring affair.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)

NB: Washington Redskins. Less than a year ago, the Packers destroyed Washington in Washington in the playoffs. A lot has changed for Green Bay since then and they seem to have lost their way. I’m surprised this is less than 3 points, considering the Redskins are the better team right now.

RH: Washington Redskins. I cannot believe it’s come to this. Taking Washington over Green Bay doesn’t feel right even if it is the right play. Stay away from this one and be prepared for a lot of points in this one.

Monday, Nov. 21

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)

NB: Oakland Raiders. I’m buying into the Raiders and I’m selling the AFC South. We know Brock is not good, so why would you put any faith into him?

RH: Houston Texans. I don’t think Houston is a good team, but 5.5 is a lot of points for a team with a solid defense on a neutral field.

Season Record:

NB: 74-71-2 (6-8 last week)

RH: 57-88-2 (4-10 last week)

-Nick Bair & Randy Haines

Odds according to Westgate Las Vegas

Photo credit: Pro Player Insiders

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s