2016 Recap: 68-94, Last in the NL West. Before the 2015 season the Padres went all in on veterans like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields and Craig Kimbrell. As we all know that failed miserably and the Padres roster is still feeling the affects of those win now moves. The Padres lost their 2016 opener and were below .500 the rest of the way dealing James Shields and Matt Kemp in the early summer erasing all memories of their 2015 failures. The Padres have had just one winning season since 2008 and have not made the playoffs since 2006. Unfortunately for Padres fans 2017 does not look promising either as we could be looking at the worst team in baseball this year.
Significant Additions: RHP Jhoulys Chacin, RHP Trevor Cahill, RHP Jered Weaver
Significant Subtractions: C Derek Norris
Projected Lineup and Breakdown:
- LF Travis Jankowski
- CF Manuel Margot
- 1B Wil Myers
- 3B Yangervis Solarte
- RF Hunter Renfroe
- 2B Ryan Schimpf
- C Austin Hedges
- SS Luis Sardinas
The Padres had the worst team batting average (.235) and worst team on base percentage (.299) in the National League last season and you could make a good argument last year’s team had more talent (at least in the first half) than this year’s squad. First baseman Wil Myers was one of the few bright spots for the Padres in 2016 as he finally tapped into the potential that made him a former top prospect with the Rays. Myers stayed healthy all season and finished with 28 homers, 94 RBI along with 28 stolen bases. San Diego got some solid production from under the radar players like Ryan Schimpf (20 home runs) and Travis Jankowski (30 stolen bases), but there just isn’t a lot to look forward to until youngsters like Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe reach their stride.
Projected rotation, Bullpen, and Breakdown:
- RHP Jhoulys Chacin
- LHP Clayton Richard
- RHP Trevor Cahill
- LHP Christian Friedrich
- RHP Jered Weaver
- RHP Brandon Maurer – Closer
- LHP Ryan Buchter
- RHP Kevin Quackenbush
- LHP Brad Hand
- RHP Carter Capps
If looking at the Padres offense upset you, looking at their pitching staff will make you just plain sad. Did you hear that noise? That’s the Island of misfit toys snickering at this group of players. There is not a lot of upside with anyone currently on the big league staff. Outside of older prospects Tyrell Jenkins and Luis Perdomo the Padres future staff led by top prospect Anderson Espinoza is currently sitting in the low minors. In the meantime San Diego will rely on pitchers who were good 8 years ago like Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill to eat innings this season. This just isn’t good for anyone except if you are a big DFS player, stack against the Padres pitchers whenever you get the chance.
Stud: 1B Wil Myers. Myers finally reached his potential in 2016 and was a game changer to anyone who took a shot on him in the mid rounds of their drafts last season. I’m not sure if Myers will continue to run at the pace he did last season, but his power is undeniable. Assuming health Myers should be a safe bet for 25-30 home runs and even if he cuts back on his running he will surely get you double digits which is rare among first basemen. Think Paul Goldschmidt without the batting average, that is the kind of player you will be getting with Myers and a nice consolation prize if you miss out on the top 5 first basemen currently going in the first two rounds.
Sleeper: OF’s Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe. I couldn’t decide between these two top 100 prospects and since I’ve been kind of harsh on the Padres so far I will be nice and give them two sleepers. If it’s late in your draft and you are looking for some speed with batting average upside go with Margot. If it’s late in your draft and you couse use a few extra home runs take Renfroe. Both guys are currently going outside the top 50 outfielders and both will have the opportunity to play almost everyday and should hit high enough in the order to at least be replacement level in runs and RBI even in a bad Padres lineup.
Bust: RP Brandon Maurer. This one really isn’t fair since Myers is the only San Diego player currently being drafted in every league. I chose Maurer just for the fact I do not see him keeping the closer role all season. As soon as Carter Capps is ready to go after his Tommy John surgery, I expect him to quickly take the role from Maurer. Big picture, you shouldn’t be looking for saves from the Padres unless you are in the deepest of leagues.
2017 Prediction: The Padres were tied for the worst record in the National League and I expect them to be down that low once again this season and could contend for the worst record in all of Major League baseball. I wish I had more analysis than that, but this just isn’t a good team. 64-98, Last in the NL West.
Photo credit: Jake Roth/USA Today Sports
Check out our other 2017 team previews here.
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball reference and Fangraphs
Projected rosters are courtesy of rosterresource.com and accurate as of 2/23/17
Fantasy ADP data courtesy of STATS.com and The NFBC